Karnataka Assembly Elections: TV9-Polstrat Exit Polls Predicts An Easy Win For Congress

New Delhi, May 10 (TNA) As voting ended in Karnataka with a turnout of around 65.69%, curtains have come down on one of the most keenly followed and fiercely fought elections in the state. The TV9-Polstrat exit poll, which had a sample size of 7500 showed a clear edge to the Congress as the votes would be counted on Saturday, May 13. According to the exit polls, the Indian National Congress (INC) will beat its adversary the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) comfortably. 

According to the findings, which has a margin of error of 3%, the Congress will get anywhere between 112-122 seats which is within striking range of the majority mark in the 224-member state assembly. The BJP, which initially started on a low note and appeared galvanised in the last few days of the campaign, thanks to an aggressive and high-decibel canvassing by prime minister Narendra Modi is clearly on its way out with just 75-85 seats. 

Janata Dal (Secular) - the regional party led by HD Kumaraswamy and his ageing father, former prime minister HD Devegowda is likely to settle on the third slot with seats anywhere between 21-26 while the others, including independents might corner 0-4 seats, the exit polls done by TV9-Polstrat infers that Congress will get a vote share of 40.9% while the BJP will stick to 36.9% and the JD (S) is likely to get 15.8% votes, others 6.4%.

In Central Karnataka, the BJP might get 13-15 seats, 15-18 in coastal Karnataka, 15-17 in Greater Bangalore, 5-6 in Hyderabad Karnataka and on-expected-lines show in Mumbai Karnataka with 20-22 seats, In Old Mysore, the BJP is likely to get only 5-6 seats while the Congress here is a major player with 27-29 seats. In central Karnataka, the Congress is likely to get 19-21 seats, 3-5 in coastal region, 13-15 in greater Bangalore, 21-23 in Hyderabad Karnataka, and 28-30 in Mumbai Karnataka.

If one sees gender-wise distribution of the vote share, Congress seems to be the preferred party with males with a likely 39.9% vote share while the BJP could get 37.6% and 16.4% males preferred the JD(S). Of the women voters, BJP remains the best bet with 40.2% vote share and 37.9% prefer the Congress while 15.1% stick with their loyalities towards the regional JD(S). BJP also remains the frontline party with voters below the age group of 23 years with a likely vote share of 40.7%, according to the survey while only 36.8% in this age group prefer the Congress.

BJP is also preferred (40.6%) by age group 23-35). Beyond this age group, including the elderly, INC seems to be the preferred choice. 42.2% vote share of age group 36-45 years seems to be rallying behind the Congress and in above 56 years age group too, with 38.1% vote share INC is the preferred choice for the next state government. Amongst the Dalits too, Congress seems to have done fairly well with 52.6% vote share while the BJP looks set to get around 31.1% of their votes.

OBC vote share is leaning towards the BJP with 46.5% to them and 32.3% to the INC and 15.2% to the JD(S). Upper caste Hindus are rock solid behind the BJP with 55.3% vote share and the Congress managing only 17.7% and JD(S) 14.2%. Muslim votes have gone overwhelmingly (74.1%) to the INC, while 11.8% have reposed faith in the JD(S) and 8.4% even in the BJP. Lingayats seem to have solidly rooted for the BJP with 60.9% vote share and 23.6% to the Congress and 23.6% to the Congress.

Of the Vokaligga votes, BJP seems to be getting 29.8%, Congress 25.7% and JD(S) getting the most in its kitty with 38.3% vote share. Regionwise dissection fo the likely vote share in Central region shows that BJP might get 41.2% while the INC could garner 42.3% votes and JD(S) 9.4%. In Coastal Karnataka, BJP is likely to do well in vote share as well with 50.3%, INC 25.3% and 12.7% going to the JD(S). In greater Bangalore, the ruling BJP might get 45.8% while the INC will have to settle with 39.6% and JD(S) getting 12.8%.

In Hyderabad Karnataka region, Congress leads with 39.9% vote share and the BJP is likely to get 36.9% votes and in the Mumbai Karnataka region, BJP might get 43.2% votes while the Congress gets 44% votes. In Old Mysore area, 35.2% votes are likely to go to INC, 32.6% to the JD(S) and 22.8% to the BJP.